If you are double effed off with the whole market I can’t blame you.
But. Since I went full time in 2001 there have been many times where I thought of throwing in the towel. Especially 2008.
I didn’t. I learned from meltdowns and survived. If you have been doing ok so far, you can survive. You really can.
Markets will always go too far one way or the other and at some point soon there will be some stunning upside and in a year’s time you will go: “Phew. Glad I stayed with it.”
If you decided not to sell much and hold on then you are probably nursing very severe paper losses. And you must feel awful.
And you are probably right that if you didn’t sell by now you may as wellhold on.
Fear can turn to bullishness fast in a quick moving market, seen it plenty of times – so there is some hope, honest !
Come back in a month or two and it will all be all right again, probably.
And look, cheer up. There is more to life than money. There’s toast!
Twix! Pets! Love! Spag Bol! Sex!
Spotting when it might turn in a black swan event is impossible and it may be worth waiting till it is more obvious it is heading back up and miss a bit of the initial rise.
It is all easier if you have a smaller portfolio when you have a giant one (!) you really have to bank some gains. It all felt so much easier even two weeks ago.
So much happens so fast no wonder the markets are in manic crazy mode with indices and shares all over the place!
This strangely makes it harder for the more experienced than beginners though my experiences of bear markets makes it a bit easier.
And for beginners it’s great – you can buy shares now or later at 30 percent discounts, fabulous!
I had a look at what I wrote in NT 5 about what happens when the sh1t hits the fan. I’m glad I took my own advice.
That was in a nutshell, go short of some shares and an index, topslice and go into a lot of cash while keeping at least some of the strongest shares. I surprised myself at how ruthless I really was. I wonder why it’s hard to sell shares you’ve had for a while that have done well.
I’ve always found it easy to sell losers fast. I find a loser annoying and am happy to quit.
But a big winner? Something I’ve liked. Ooh. Hard. But I found once I started I quite enjoyed it.
I found it hard to stop. I now have nearly £1 million sitting in cash.
I has already sold off a lot and as the market kept shifting down I knew I had to sell some more.
As I sold I kept remembering the reason. I’ve had a really good run and why not actually get some profits banked? I can always go back in.
I’m sure many are saying (I don’t read social media, twitter and gave up on bulletin boards after being trolled) that it wasn’t worth selling anything and it will all come back.
And I am sure it will, but who knows when? Maybe it’s got a lot further to go.
You could at least sell some and have the cash ready to buy back.
Let me get this out of the way.
You. Are. Going. To. Hate. Me.
But luckily not being on twitter and not watching social media means I won’t see any abuse personally.
But, I have made very large sums shorting the FTSE. I mean very large. We are talking £350,000 plus. I wouldn’t even have written this on the site unless a lot of people had seen this live on my spreadbet accounts over the last two weeks. So I feel it is ok to mention it as it has been proved to lots of people.
The money made well surpasses paper losses on what’s left in the isas after my sell off.
As those that came to the seminars saw, my stakes were big but felt this was a quick chance that doesn’t come along often to get the right end of a big move. As I’m classified as a “pro” spreadbet trader, I hardly had to put up any money even to fund the big trades.
Some of the money isn’t banked yet through. But I have staggered stops as those who came to the seminars saw and if it sparks back up they will start to get hit and the profits taken.
Right, bragging rights bagged this is not what this site is really about so let’s move onto some trades.
Obviously as above the main trade has been a massive FTSE short. If you really want to know the size? Ok, then roughly £400 a point between accounts.
I went big because I thought this might be a once in a decade chance to catch a giant market move. I had more than enough in the bank to back it up and would have quit with smaller losses if it had gone wrong.
As I write profits are past £400,000. If it goes up now, some of the stops will begin to get hit and I should bank about £300,000. I realise some of this is luck – and because this site isn’t about shorting indices none of these profits will be recorded for the site.
I have also doubled my money on an ETF short in the isas. Please don’t mail me about how to do this, it is in my book! Those of you who’ve been to seminars know what I am talking about. I said how much this would be your friend in a market meltdown and it really has been my best pal!
Some new share shorts. It really was a no brainer to short Carnival the cruise ship operator.
It really wasn’t exactly a novel idea.
But the virus is really going to sink cruises for a bit. Who wants to be stuck for weeks on a ship stuck in a tiny room? Unless it’s with Kylie Minogue?
So you’d expect cancellations. I can’t do boats, I always get sick. The short is going well.
Thanks to whoever it was at the spreadbet seminar when we were looking for shorts who said “John Menzies has got massive debt”.
How right he was! My eyes gleamed when I saw the debt and what looked like a way too high rating so I shorted it live. That has really paid off already and Menzies has already confessed it is being hit by virus blues and has cancelled its div.
So my thanks, worth holding the seminar for the profits on that short alone.
I shorted Trainline again after taking a loss on a previous short on it. It looks like a perfect storm with large debts.
As well as looking at shorts I did a couple of small “Nibbles” at some bargains but they never worked out but the get out quick worked a treat for a couple of small £100 losses.
I nibbled at a buy in a beaten up Ten Ent (LON:TEG) and got some at the sell price at the seminar live. I held it till this morning and sold for a small profit. It looks like it might still be too early to nibble. Any nibbles need disposing of as fast as a sneeze into a tissue.
It’s pretty difficult to sum up the sells – after mainly topslicing last time I’ve sold the lot of a lot of things. And I don’t have that many positions left.
I have tried to sort them all out but am struggling a bit but imagine I have sold a lot of, all of, or at least some of the things I had. So here are some website positions banked profit and losses.
So, that includes: Kape topslice profit £7,557 Avon (topslice) +562 and +3689 Soli +2180. TEG -5 and +563 (TS) Imo -£13 Via -£1,072. The American one but can’t work out the profit with the currency translation. Nfc (TS) £183.
Phew. All I have time for now – but over the weekend will take time out to update the trades table on the website (nakedtrader.co.uk) with all the full details worked out. Promise will be done by Sunday night.
Shorts in AA (LON:AA), Superdry (LON:SDRY), Card Factory (LON:CARD) , AO World (LON:AO) , Devro (LON:DVO), and Restaurant Group (LON:RTN) are all making a fortune between them. They keep tanking, I keep holding.
As you might imagine I am totally under the cosh with emails and 360 are sitting there and I just can’t answer them all. I couldn’t do it even if I had an assistant or a team.
But I am on my own. I answer as many as I can but I just haven’t the energy or time for what might happen next or what you should do. Or even what to do with your life. I am so sorry but one person can’t cope with it all.
Clue:if you need an answer keep the mail short!
I would point you though to the chapter in NT 5 which deals with a market meltdown.
I would suggest getting a nice list of 15 or so shares that have been beaten down.
Get ready for a market turn and start buying small – if it carries on down, get out and try again.
Take it slowly. Ensure when you buy to avoid big debt and then all the booby traps: illiquid penny shares, punts, blue sky, oil, commodity etc.
If you start buying great companies with low debt, and actually makes rising profits then you could end up quids in soon enough.
Good luck to you all and I hope none of you catch the virus.